Despite the increased focus and investment from businesses in programmes aimed at improving social mobility, recent research presents some worrying trends for under-resourced young people in the UK:
Data from the Education Policy Institute highlights that the gap between disadvantaged young people and their peers leaving school is the widest it has been since 2012.
According to the ONS, in April to June 2024, an estimated 872,000 young people in the UK were not in education, employment, or training (NEET), which is 12.2% of all 16-24 year olds. This is an increase from 798,000 in the same period in 2023.
Participating in work experience reduces the probability of young people becoming NEET from 11% to 7%, having controlled for socio-economic status. However, only a third of teenagers aged 16-18 have completed work experience, and half of 14–16-year-olds.
Research by the Sutton Trust identified top barriers to succeeding in life included a lack of job opportunities where they live (30%), access to good education (29%) and lack of self-belief (26%).
With inequalities in education and early careers, and a reported skills crisis across almost all industries in the UK, unfortunately for employers the skills required for the future are just not there. While some of these challenges are systemic and will take time to address, meaningful change can only occur through concerted and integrated efforts from businesses, government, and the third sector.
In this edition of the AMS Social Mobility Series, we explore ways to empower and inspire today’s young adults, showcasing AMS Talent Lab’s partnership with the King’s Trust, as well as some recent collaborations with leading organisations such as GoodWork, BelEve and Your Game Plan.
Creating opportunities through AMS Talent Lab and The King’s Trust
AMS shot up this year’s Social Mobility Foundation Employer Index, moving up 27 positions from 39th to 12th. Instrumental to this was the work of AMS Talent Lab, every element of which is designed to impact Social Value and provide opportunity to untapped and under-resourced talent. Talent Lab recently won the Highly Commended & Gold Award, for Recruitment Programme of the Year at the UK Social Mobility Awards (SOMOs).
This year AMS Talent Lab was part of the Million Makers scheme, which aims to raise £1 million for the King’s Trust. Each team is challenged with creating a fundraising initiative and to pitch to a panel of Dragons, who decide if and how much seed funding they will secure. Talent Lab wanted to do something sustainable that would have a lasting effect for young adults to improve social mobility. Their idea is to create a series of fully sponsored virtual client events across a network of clients in 5 key regions across the UK, targeting the most deprived towns and those who need the opportunity most. Initially they will be running one for 16-19 year olds and a smaller event for year 6 students, which will come under the banner Limitless Horizons. Through sponsorship and fundraising events, we are aiming to generate in excess of £15,000 for the Million Makers scheme to support the King’s Trust enterprise.
Through the work they have with Skills for Life, our team have an extensive network of clients, of all sizes, across these regions already, which gives us a great starting position and so we are very confident that this will make a difference. If you’d like to learn more or collaborate on this initiative, reach out to our Talent Lab team.
Creating a blueprint for meaningful work experience
Currently, work experience isn’t compulsory for schools to offer – only half of state schools offer to students, and in many cases this is not meaningful work. This coupled with a lack of career guidance means that those from poorest regions don’t have access to opportunities, or don’t know what career options are out there.
In Summer 2024, Melanie Barnett (PSR Managing Director), Anna Crowe (PSR Client Relationship Director and Social Value Lead) and Michael Caley-Cook (AMS Senior DEB Manager) joined a collaborative CSR session led by Your Game Plan with participation from leading public and private organisations. The purpose was to develop a blueprint for a comprehensive work experience programme that would impact young people from lower socioeconomic and under-resourced communities.
Your Game Plan works with state schools across the country, many in underprivileged areas, where pupils don’t have the necessary role models, mentors, or parental connections to provide support in the next stages of their life. The blueprint content captured from the day will be pulled into a proposal that will be taken forwards by APSCo Outsource’s Managing Director, Melanie Forbes and Your Game Plan Founder, Danny Heath.
We also look forward participating in National Interview Month in February 2025, helping school and sixth form leavers prepare for their first real interviews. 16,000 young people will benefit from the opportunity to engage directly with professionals in various industries, which is expected to generate over £1 million in Social Value for state-educated students.
Career Insight Days with GoodWork and BelEve
In autumn 2024, AMS collaborated with two fantastic organisations to inspire the next generation of future leaders through meaningful Career Insight Days.
GoodWork is a non-profit supporting young people facing systemic barriers to access the training and opportunities they need to transition successfully into work. We were proud to host a diverse cohort of talented young people at our new London office for a Career Insights Day. We discussed the importance of understanding each other’s social styles, influencing & negotiating and business writing, with members of our ExCo joining a panel to bring to life their career stories and the power of mentorship.
BelEveis an incredible charity that aims to equip girls and young women aged 8-22 with the skills, support and confidence to find their voice and make informed choices about their future – challenging gender, race and class stereotypes. This October we hosted a Career Insight Day in our London Office where we shared CV and interview tips, ran a panel to hear career stories from senior AMS women, delivered training on social and communication styles, and even challenged the girls to create a TikTok on life at AMS.
Conclusion
A recent report by Demos and The Co-operative Group estimates that the economic impact of all businesses investing significantly in social mobility could be up to £19 billion to GDP, generating around £6.8 billion in yearly tax revenues and boosting profits by over £1.8bn a year. As the research shows, we need to keep a continued focus to improve outcomes for young people and level the playing field, a collaborative effort between the commercial sector, government, and the third sector.
Please connect with us if you are passionate about driving change in this area and would like to learn more about how we can support your social mobility initiatives.
With 60% of TA leaders now identifying skill shortages as their top issue it was interesting to read this article Traits trump skills from Ade McCormack, Founder, The Intelligent Leadership Hub who has an interesting view around the importance of traits v skills when it comes to hiring in a skills short market.
We have seen this as an approach used in the delivery of the Recruit, Train, Deploy (RTD) solution where cohorts are hired based on teachability and aptitude. Traits like a positive attitude, eagerness to learn, and adaptability are considered valuable for RTD hires as the skills required are being taught prior to and during the placement.
Long-term Potential: Candidates with strong character traits such as reliability, integrity, and teamwork are often seen as having greater long-term potential. They can grow and adapt as the company evolves.
Hiring in this way, based on character traits over specific skills in the form of an RTD model has generated some great success and led to a *97% retention rate throughout the duration of the assignments and of the cohorts that have converted to permanent positions, *48% are elevated to a more senior positions within 2 years.
Plus the RTD Solution, when carried out well, can enhance and bolster social mobility and goodness knows, as an economy, we need to make our workforce more socially mobile.
This “take a chance on me” approach reflects my own personal journey. Having changed careers 10 years ago from Procurement to Recruitment.
I was hired as an Account Director role at AMS, moving roles from a Professional Services Senior Category Manager. Having demonstrated traits such as commercial awareness, emotional intelligence and adaptability I learned about recruitment whilst doing the job!
Creating new skills during the journey whilst embracing the ambiguity of the change in role and being confident in my ability to adapt. It was more like “take a chance on them” as AMS had identified I had the “traits” to make that change and grow in my new role, 10 years on it was definitely the right move!
In summary, while both traits and skills are important, many employers are leaning towards hiring for traits, especially for roles where cultural fit and long-term potential are critical. What are your thoughts on this approach?
*Statistics provided by PSR RTD supply chain 2023.
while both traits and skills are important, many employers are leaning towards hiring for traits, especially for roles where cultural fit and long-term potential are critical.
Earlier this year AMS asked talent leaders across the globe their opinions on the ‘green skills’ crisis. Shockingly, 84% of respondents said something needs to be done urgently to address the green skills gap, but only 7% think something will!
I was expecting this headline to be part of the new whitepaper around green skills we have developed on the basis of our outreach and research, but actually seeing it brought to life through real data was certainly a sobering thought.
We also asked our respondents what the barriers are to bridging this gap and what needs to be done, to get to where we need to be. The insights that followed were fascinating and revealed that whilst a lot of work is required, optimism still remains among those tasked with creating the strategies for global talent in their organizations.I would encourage anyone who has an interest in talent strategies to help us achieve our sustainability imperatives to download the whitepaper here.
HR and talent leaders are uniquely positioned to be a powerful force in closing the green skills gap and supporting sustainability efforts and our whitepaper shines a light on some of the areas that could make a real impact.
We conclude our whitepaper with the following recommendations;
Embrace a long term mindset
Champion collaboration
Apply green skills with a fresh lens
Let your green show
Prioritize specialized training and development
‘Green skills’ apply to every industry in the global economy and all organizations will have to adopt a green skills talent strategy at some point in the near future. Those looking to secure a strategic competitive advantage will act now!
If we want to address the green skills gap, we need to understand that all future job roles will require green skills.
An increasing number of business and HR leaders today are working on enhancing engagement of their growing Gen Z workforce. Considering the prevailing sentiments when discussing how to support Gen Z workers, now aged between 12 and 27 years, have led me to notice similarities with needs of those who are neurodivergent at work.
As a neurodiversity advocate, I am feeling buoyed, as employers looking to unlock the potential of their Gen Z workforce, will also be creating conditions that are more welcoming to neurodiversity. We know that in today’s evolving workplace, understanding the needs of diverse employee groups is crucial for fostering an inclusive and productive environment.
To help frame the win-win situation that seems to be occurring, below is a list of some key similarities for engaging both Gen Z and ND (neurodivergent) employees.
Flexibility and work-life balance
Gen Z: Having grown up with technology and the internet, Gen Z places a high value on flexibility. They are accustomed to the idea of working from anywhere and at any time. The traditional 9-to-5 workday doesn’t appeal to them as much as flexible working hours and remote work opportunities. This flexibility allows them to balance their personal lives and work responsibilities effectively.
ND: Flexibility is equally important for neurodivergent employees, who may have varying needs depending on their specific condition or situation. For instance, individuals who are autistic may thrive with a consistent routine but need flexibility in terms of the environment and sensory inputs. Those with ADHD might benefit from flexible hours that allow them to work during their peak productivity times.
Emphasis on mental health and wellbeing
Gen Z: This generation is notably more open about mental health issues compared to previous generations. They seek employers who not only acknowledge the importance of mental health but also provide resources and support to address it. Mental health days, access to therapy, and wellness programs are highly valued by Gen Z.
ND: Mental health support is crucial for neurodivergent employees. Providing access to mental health resources, creating a supportive work culture, and offering reasonable accommodations can make a significant difference in their work lives.
Technology and innovation
Gen Z: As digital natives, Gen Z employees are adept at using technology and expect their workplaces to be equipped with the latest tools and platforms. They prefer employers who embrace innovation and are open to new ways of doing things. This tech-savviness not only enhances productivity but also keeps them engaged.
ND: Technology can be a powerful tool for neurodivergent employees as well. Assistive technologies, such as speech-to-text programs, organizational apps, and sensory-friendly devices, can help them perform their tasks more effectively. Moreover, technology can facilitate communication and reduce misunderstandings, creating a more inclusive environment.
Inclusive and diverse work culture
Gen Z: Diversity and inclusion are non-negotiables for Gen Z. They want to work in environments where differences are celebrated, and everyone has a voice. This includes not only racial and gender diversity but also diversity in thought and experience.
ND: An inclusive work culture is essential for neurodivergent employees. They need an environment where they feel understood and accepted, where their unique perspectives are valued, and where they have the same opportunities for growth and advancement as their neurotypical peers.
Clear communication and feedback
Gen Z: Clarity in communication is crucial for Gen Z. They appreciate regular feedback and clear instructions, which help them understand their roles and expectations better. Open and honest communication fosters trust and helps them feel more connected to their work.
ND: Clear and direct communication is equally important for neurodivergent employees. They may require more explicit instructions and constructive feedback to navigate their tasks effectively. Ensuring that communication is straightforward and accessible can significantly enhance their job performance and satisfaction.
By recognizing the overlapping needs of Gen Z and neurodivergent employees, employers can create a more inclusive and supportive workplace. Flexibility, mental health support, technological integration, a diverse and inclusive culture, and clear communication are not just beneficial but essential for the success and wellbeing of these groups.
As we embrace these principles at work, we can expect a more dynamic and harmonious work environment, benefiting all employees and giving us a view of the future of work that is a bit brighter.
Graduating with a degree was once considered key to kickstarting a prosperous career and many recruiters would typically filter shortlists by removing applicants who weren’t degree qualified without any discussion. This is a traditional and aged way of hiring, posing a barrier for employers who aim to build diverse and inclusive workforces for many reasons. Unfortunately, the practice still exists today and can be one of the methods that employers find the most difficult to ditch.
Interestingly, this article from the Harvard Business Reviewshares that the practice took off in the early 2000’s with a significant number of employers adding degree requirements to the descriptions of jobs that hadn’t previously required degrees, a trend that became particularly pronounced after the Great Recession of 08-09 and commonly referred to as ‘Degree inflation’.
The same article recognises that skills-based hiring is on the rise which will open opportunities to a large population of potential employees who in recent years have often been excluded from consideration because of degree inflation. More and more employers are recognising that the qualifications available don’t always fully match the needs of their businesses now or in the future with 45% of employers saying an applicant having a degree is ‘not important’ according to an article written by PeopleManagement.co.uk.
It’s also reported by the Mirrorthatin 2023 that less than half of graduates were working in a career that related to their degree. Even the universities minister, Michelle Donelan, acknowledges that “higher education is not necessarily the best route to get to where you want in life” and that that true social mobility is about improving outcomes rather than university placements as reported by the Guardian.
How does ‘Degree Inflation’ impact social mobility, you ask? It’s widely reported that individuals from a lower socio-economic background are less likely to attend or complete a university course but that doesn’t mean that this group of people are less competent or capable. The Social Mobility Commission shares thoughts from the former CEO of Personal Banking at Barclays, Steven Cooper, who left school at 16 and became a bank teller. Steven has faced many barriers over his 30-year career namely promotions hinging on a specific level of qualification or assumptions that he should be in a clerical role given his background however he’s managed to overcome this and enjoy a career that has taken him to the most senior levels.
It’s a fascinating story but unfortunately not the case for so many others.
Society is moving in the right direction but there is still more to be done. According to LinkedIn, there were only 30% of jobs posted that don’t require a degree in 2022. It would be interesting to know how many advertisements that required a degree qualified individual had actually stated which course or topic the individual should be qualified in as far too often the specialism isn’t declared leaving room for speculation if a degree level qualification is required at all.
To promote, enable and accelerate social mobility and create inclusive workplace and hiring practices, organisations should think harder and smarter about talent attraction and retention. Shifting focus from rigid degree requirements to a skills-based hiring approach levels the playing field and provides opportunity for individuals from all backgrounds to thrive.
Skills-based hiring will open opportunities to a large population of potential employees who in recent years have often been excluded from consideration because of degree inflation
At first glance, hiring a painting contractor and managing campus recruiting seem worlds apart. Yet, dive a bit deeper, and you’ll find they share a core principle that’s surprisingly universal. Intrigued? Let me share a story.
After moving into our new home, with the holidays fast approaching and my to-do list overflowing, the walls still needed painting. Despite my DIY enthusiasm, time was not on my side. Reluctantly, I called in a commercial painter. To my amazement, they transformed our home in a day, allowing me to focus on what truly mattered – welcoming family.
This experience was a lightbulb moment, mirroring a concept well-known in business: outsourcing, or specifically, Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO) in talent acquisition. In our everyday lives, we do this everywhere – we outsource our car repairs to trained mechanics, healthcare to medical professionals, gardening to lawncare professionals, and the list goes on. But when it comes to recruiting, especially campus recruiting, we seem to forget help is available in the form of RPO.
Let’s explore why handing the brush (or the resumes) over to the experts might just be the smartest play you make this season.
Quality:
Quality isn’t just about getting it done but getting it done so well, people can’t help but notice. It’s like comparing walls and trim painted by a seasoned painter to your first attempt at painting; the difference is night and day. Outsourcing campus recruiting throws professional expertise into the mix, ensuring that the job isn’t just completed, but it’s done with a level of polish and finesse that only comes from years in the game. As an example, AMS supported an aerospace client in the redesign of their global engineering program, providing market best practice, insights, structure, and the delivery of a new assessment process. Results: We conducted over 2K final round interviews resulting in female hires increasing from 28% to 42% and had less than 2% written offer declines.
Cost:
Now, let’s talk dollars and sense. Economies of scale? Check. Lower opportunity costs because you’re not tied up doing something outside your wheelhouse? Double-check. Leveraging a professional’s access to significant and varied expertise? Triple-check. But it is not always about saving money. In some cases, it’s about creating better outcomes in the long-term that translates into high-quality hires, improved DEI outcomes, and improved retention, among other things. But make no mistake, administrative aspects of a campus program are the ideal areas to consider outsourcing as cost savings are extremely likely.
Time:
Time is that one thing we’re always running out of, and let’s be honest, spreading ourselves too thin is a recipe for disaster. Handing off aspects of your campus recruiting program can free your experienced team members up to execute where it makes a difference or tackle big-picture projects that really move the needle. It’s about playing it smart and making every second count.
Expertise and Specialization:
There’s something about someone who knows their stuff inside out that just inspires confidence. Whether it’s the pro painter who knows exactly how to bring your vision to life or a talent acquisition expert who can navigate the campus recruiting scene like a boss, that level of expertise is a game-changer. It means better outcomes, less fuss, and a whole lot of impressed onlookers.
Risks and Challenges:
Sure, handing over the reins comes with its own set of worries. Will the service provider get it? Can they deliver to your standards? It’s like letting someone else cook your signature dish for a big party. The trick is in the vetting—checking out their past work, talking to references, and making sure they’re the real deal. Consider AMS: With a 97% client retention rate, a unique specialization in campus recruiting, over 100+ years of campus leadership experience, choosing us isn’t just a safe bet—it’s a strategic advantage.
Benefits and Drawbacks:
The upside? Think potential cost savings, top-notch quality, and the freedom to dive into work that really makes an impact. Not to mention, the ability to scale up or down as your business ebbs and flows. The downside? Costs may add up, building trust takes time, and you might miss having those extra hands for odd jobs.
Conclusion:
The moral of the story? Whether it’s ensuring your home looks its best or sculpting a top-tier early career recruiting program, smart outsourcing is your strategic ace. It’s not just about delegating tasks; it’s about empowering your organization to excel at what it does best, unlocking potential and efficiencies along the way. Ready to play it smart? Let’s chat: Connect with a talent acquisition expert.
“Master your strengths, outsource your weaknesses.” – Ryan Khan
I had the pleasure of hosting a panel discussion with three of our AMS clients, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and GSK at the 2024 Institute of Student Employers Global Conference last week.
Our panel are tenured Global Early Careers Leads and run recruitment campaigns and programmes across EMEA, the Americas, APAC and India. It was fascinating to get under the skin of some of the benefits, challenges and regional complexities.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of running programmes globally?
My first question to the panel was around the benefits and disadvantages of running Early Careers programmes globally.
We heard about how a global Early Careers programme can provide the c-suite with a global lens on skills, diversity, and other key business drivers. Bringing in an annual intake to pivot on skills shortages can provide strategic advantage and boost workforce planning efforts. Different regions and locations bring different skills and the ability to leverage multiple regions and feeding this knowledge into the bigger picture is transformational. For example, the growing trend of recruiting apprentices in the UK across back and now front office investment banking roles, and the strong growth of technology hubs in India.
We know Generation Z are globally mobile and expect to be treated like consumers so selling a global product and introducing them to a global network resonates. There are also cost efficiencies around managing partnerships globally, streamlining resources more effectively and using tools and technology at a greater scale.
Disadvantages mentioned were the time spent on the internal politics and complexity. HR will drive for global consistency, but the business will often want the opposite so finding that ‘glocal’ approach can be a challenge. Additionally establishing a global footprint will come with global risk exposure, particularly in the finance sector where managing risk is critical. This can be time consuming to get right and consistent governance and controls will need to be in place and regulated.
From a marketing perspective, within countries, global brands can be diluted, for example the top ten organisations regularly appearing in the highfliers research are often those with a strong in country focus such as the big 4, NHS and BBC. A brand will have different levels of employee attractiveness across the regions.
What are the operational challenges?
I then asked the panel about the operational challenges of running a global early careers campaign. We covered off multiple factors. The fact that different universities have different approaches. For example, some of the legalities in EMEA where universities can dictate salaries to be paid and the complexity of how campus recruiting works in India in conjunction with the campus placement officers.
Assessment also is different per region so establishing a one size fits all is often not possible. For example, online testing in the US comes with its own legal complexities. Another challenge is the ease of hiring and retaining the campus recruiter skill set in some countries where is has not been delivered as a specialism previously.
Furthermore, with the number of stakeholders involved and the interconnection required, it can be complicated to get stakeholders to align and to make decisions. Data is one of the key benefits of a global campaign but agreeing what to measure can be a complex and needs to have some consistency across an often-divergent process.
The final challenge discussed was around diversity, equity and inclusion which has different meanings in different countries. We discussed the focus in India, on gender and disability which is different to the US and UK so trying to find alignment in focus and reporting can be involved.
What advice would you give to organisations looking to set up a global campaign?
The third question I asked the panel was about advice they would offer for organisations who are looking to set up a global campaign. And the main advice was that no one size fits all. Consequently, it is key to focus on where your organisation want to be consistent and where it need to be different. Bringing local embedded subject matter experts together as a global team with a common purpose will be a great starting point. Matrix ownership can be beneficial i.e., the US regional lead also manages attraction globally, the APAC regional lead also looks after data.
Alignment is of course valuable, but it is not necessary to shoe-horn countries into a global approach e.g. diversity will always need to be regionally sensitive. Also, a reminder not to under-estimate the basics e.g. time zones for meetings, and networking events. We also talked about the importance of working through the balance between cohort hiring and ad hoc hiring as you gradually create some cohesion across the global offering.
As ever in the world of talent acquisition it is a challenge to balance the needs of the business and what works in recruitment however bringing early careers hires together in centrally managed cohorts rather than on an ad hoc basis does provide the ability to space hiring out. Moreover, creating greater definition across the application process start dates and deadlines will come with benefits as we increasingly see early careers recruitment stretching across the whole year.
I would like to reiterate my gratitude to our panel members for spending time with us and helping grow our knowledge around global early careers programmes.
At AMS we support over 30 early careers and campus programmes, some global and some regional and have supported with over 28,000 hires this season. If you would like to talk to us about how we can support you, contact us.
The highlight of my month came last week when I teamed up with Jamie Pirie, AMS Client Solutions Director,and Debra Sparshot, Talent Industry Expert & Analyst from TALiNT Partners, to host a virtual roundtable focusing on the most important topics for early career leaders and organisations across EMEA. It was a great chance to step away from the day-to-day and share insights on key considerations for 2024 when hiring and nurturing early talent.
The roundtable attendees were a fantastic blend of TA professionals, some with highly strategic, well established early career programmes and others at the start of their journey to elevate early careers within their organization. This mix of experience made for a rich discussion across many topics, from authentic attraction methods, diversity, new routes for early talent into organisations, nurturing talent pipelines, hiring for skills and potential and how to bring the business along for the ride!
My key takeaways:
Assessing for skills and potential allows you to remove traditional methods of assessment that can have adverse impact on certain diverse groups, and coupled with educating the business on the benefits and considerations around this change, as well as having a method for reviewing and refining your approach, can lead to strong outcomes that help build your future talent pipelines.
The competition for talent is increasing and early talent candidates are looking for authentic messaging and storytelling to help them decide where to apply. Utilizing existing early talent employees and ambassadors to create meaningful day-in-the-life insights for candidates to get a true picture (the good and the bad) of what it is like to work for your organization can open doors for talent that wouldn’t have previously considered applying and increase the retention of your new hires; ‘shiny’ imagery that paints a perfect picture no longer resonates and leads to disappointment once the candidate joins.
Retention of early talent during, and post-program, is an ongoing challenge that employers must prioritize through robust development, progression and retention strategies. Being clear in your attraction on the possible career pathways, again through real examples and authentic storytelling, as well as the development a person will receive, is something that candidates today are definitely looking out for.
There were so many other takeaways and I look forward to continuing the conversation in further roundtables and conversations. Thank you to all of the participants for an engaging and open discussion and to Debra for another expertly facilitated session. If you would like to be part of future roundtables or want to discuss your early careers talent strategy with myself or other AMS experts please reach out to me at [email protected]
The “enrollment cliff” also referred to as the “demographic cliff”, is something colleges have been paying attention to for decades but has been flying under radar of most employers. How big is the issue for colleges? The National Center for Education Statistics reports that more than 500 colleges and universities closed from 2015-2020, and it is expected many more will follow. However, I’ll be focusing just on the employer side of the equation in this post.
Enrollment cliff refers to a predicted and significant decrease in the number of students available in the near term to enter colleges and universities, primarily due to lower birth rates during economic downturns. Overall, US birth rates have declined steadily over the past few decades leading to 2.6 million fewer students over the last decade alone. However, this phenomenon is expected to have significant consequences for the availability of new graduates entering the job market just around the corner – so anyone in early talent recruiting should be paying attention.
The enrollment cliff kicks in around 2025, which correlates with the expected college entry age for children born during the 2008 -2011 recession. Estimates are there will be up to 600K fewer students available to attend college between 2025 -2030 or roughly 100K fewer students each year for at least those five years. Furthermore, there was another notable drop in births in 2020, which might extend the impact of the enrollment cliff beyond initial predictions. The decline in college enrollment could lead to a 15-20% smaller incoming freshman class in 2025. This reduction is not only due to lower birth rates but also because of competing trends including:
Students and parents are questioning the ROI of college against higher education costs, shifting to lower cost institutions.
Strong job market pushing entry level wages up ($20hr+), causing students to defer entering college.
Loosening of degree requirements, shift to certifications, e-learning.
Apprenticeships gaining in popularity.
Okay, so that’s the supply side of the issue. What about demand for talent? Short of a worldwide recession and unexpected gains from AI, the demand for talent is expected to continue to rise dramatically. Not convinced? Consider just manufacturing, specifically just high-tech manufacturing. The CHIPS and Science Act alone, which repatriates semi-conductor manufacturing to the US, is expected to create a demand of 1M additional skilled workers by 2030. This does not even include all the industries that support the semi-conductor industry, meaning the 1M is conservative. BTW, building these hi-tech plants will take years and in some cases decades so this issue is not going away any time soon.
If you consider just the highly skilled part of the talent funnel, it will mean 100,000 MORE skilled workers needed, year after year through 2030. For a wakeup call, fewer than 100,000 graduate students are enrolled in electrical engineering and computer science in the United States annually. And just for comparison it’s estimated China and India combined graduate nearly 1M of these folks….but I digress. If we add in the pressure for skilled trades (plumbing, welding, carpenters, etc.), this will ensure that blue collar wages go nowhere but up, further enticing prospective grads to think twice about going to college while incurring no debt. For a great short read on the shift to Blue Collar, read Ryan Chan’s LI article “Technology Will Elevate The Blue Collar Worker Beyond White Collar Status”.
What does this mean for employers? In the wise words of Bob Newhart “Just stop it”.
Stop putting your head in the sand and hoping the problem goes away. It’s probably as good as it ever will be and the phrase “robbing Peter to pay Paul” will take on a whole new meaning.
Stop treating early careers recruitment primarily as a way to obtain cheap hires (they really aren’t BTW) rather than investing in talent pipelines, yes even LDP programs, to give you an edge for the coming talent drought.
Stop thinking about early careers as only college and openly embrace apprenticeships as much of the world has done. Best estimates, less than 40% of youth go on to get degrees which leaves a very large “trainable” workforce to consider.
Stop thinking the increased renege rates most early talent employers saw this year were a “blip”. You can thank virtual interviewing for giving students unprecedented access to interviews and multiple offers to go along with them, and this is unlikely to change soon.
And for goodness sakes, stop thinking of early careers as a talent spigot you can turn on or off – those day are long gone.
It is clear that the coming years will bring unprecedented challenges to the world of early talent acquisition, with a predicted shortage of young professionals entering the workforce. It is also entirely possible that all of this doom and gloom prognostication is a case of Chicken Little syndrome and time will tell the real story. But it’s hard to ignore what has been happening in talent for the past decade and will most likely accelerate as the “cliff babies” materialize or rather, don’t materialize as expected.
To ensure that your organization is prepared for this potential crisis, and avoid being a “Paul”, it is essential to take decisive action and focus your resources on what you do best and seek help from talent acquisition experts for any areas in need of improvement.
Contact us for more information on how early careers talent services can provide you with the competitive advantage needed to be one step ahead of the competition.
At AMS our early careers and campus experts understand the significance of providing vital information and fostering engagement within our student populations. For many, this is their first time entering into a formal selection process, making the provision of guidance and structure pivotal for a positive outcome for them – benefiting both the individuals and your employer brand.
According to a recent talent team survey candidates who are happy with the selection process are 38% more likely to accept an offer. We also know that by actively involving your entire talent pool in upskilling and preparation, the quality and diversity of your offer base increases – enabling a more even candidate baseline going into selection.
The pandemic has profoundly affected the development of our future talent, taking away opportunities to engage in the ‘real life’ work experience that traditionally equipped them for selection processes and future career paths. Empowering this demographic with accessible and relevant content in a social-style format, coupled with the expertise of face-to-face virtual coaching sessions, becomes a powerful strategy for success in a competitive marketplace.
In our extensive work with early careers clients, we have found there is a real need for employers to upskill and retain valuable candidates in the selection process and through to day one. Continuous communication in a blended digital and face to face format enables them to feel a real sense of belonging and connection to your brand from the early stages of the process, countering the challenge of reneges. Beyond this ensuring a positive view of your employer brand by all candidates who touch your organisation, irrespective of the final outcome, is also critical to brand advocacy.
Our coaching products enable you to make meaningful connections during application and pre–join stages, nurturing them during the selection phases, educating and inspiring them to be part of your organisation, increasing the likelihood of retaining candidates. This inclusive approach not only reduced drop-out rates, it improves the probability of candidates accepting an offer and contributes to a positive and lasting relationship with your organisation.
